KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

39%

28%

23%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

WN2NO 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.55u · WN2 −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	21.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.2%	14.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	13.0%	20.4%	0.8%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	27.2%	12.4%	8.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	38.7%	19.5%	18.4%	—	17.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	34.5%	27.4%	9.7%	14.9%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	12.2%	—	—	16.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	87.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	83.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	84.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	82.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	82.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗