KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

33%

25%

21%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

ICONNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.30u · ICON −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	25.2%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.1%	10.8%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	9.6%	15.8%	0.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	21.5%	9.0%	6.2%	—	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	31.6%	14.6%	13.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	27.4%	21.2%	6.7%	10.8%	11.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	8.5%	—	—	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	85.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	83.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	82.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	82.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	72.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗