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KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
39%
HRES
33%
AIFS
25%
WN2
21%
ICON
9%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u
VS
ICONNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.30u · ICON −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00IFS HRES: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:0024.9%38.8%21.1%33.2%8.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0024.9%38.8%21.1%33.2%8.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0024.9%38.8%21.1%33.2%8.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0024.9%38.8%21.1%33.2%8.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%87.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble39%85.7°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES33%83.7°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single25%82.6°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%82.1°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON9%72.9°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗