KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

19%

16%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

WN2NO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.15u · WN2 −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	13.3%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	20.2%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	8.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.9%	11.9%	0.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	16.5%	6.4%	4.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	25.1%	10.7%	10.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	21.2%	15.9%	4.5%	7.5%	8.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	8.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	42%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	82.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	82.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	84.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗