KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

29%

18%

13%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

EPSNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.10u · EPS −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	19.7%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	2.5%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	1.6%	2.7%	0.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	21.5%	35.7%	19.9%	3.6%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	46%	85.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	83.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	81.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	81.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	81.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗