KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

29%

18%

13%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

EPSNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.10u · EPS −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:36+00:00	23.8%	10.9%	21.6%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	23.8%	10.9%	21.6%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	23.8%	10.9%	21.6%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	23.8%	10.9%	21.6%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	23.8%	10.9%	21.6%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	23.8%	10.4%	18.4%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	23.8%	10.4%	18.4%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	23.8%	10.4%	18.4%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	27.7%	10.4%	18.4%	14.2%	9.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	27.7%	10.4%	18.4%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	27.7%	9.8%	18.4%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	27.7%	9.8%	18.4%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	27.7%	9.8%	18.4%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	27.7%	9.8%	24.6%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	27.7%	9.8%	24.6%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	27.7%	9.8%	24.6%	14.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	24.6%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	24.6%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	24.6%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	24.6%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	24.6%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	31.3%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:24+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	26.0%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	28.9%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	46.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	28.9%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	46.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	28.9%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	46.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	28.9%	9.8%	19.4%	34.3%	46.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	28.9%	5.3%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	28.9%	5.3%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	28.9%	5.3%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	28.9%	5.3%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	28.9%	5.3%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	28.9%	5.3%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%
2026-10-20T15:32:35+00:00	28.9%	5.7%	12.8%	18.5%	46.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	46%	85.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	83.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	81.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	81.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	81.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗