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KSAT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
69%
AIFS
55%
WN2
48%
ICON
34%
HRES
15%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u
VS
HRESNO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.00u · HRES −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:008.9%———5.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0026.1%———44.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0028.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0065.5%———40.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0015.6%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0017.2%———41.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.2%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0043.1%———60.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0033.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0042.1%———46.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0053.7%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0064.1%———50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0055.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0063.1%———59.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0065.0%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0066.1%———64.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0055.4%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———70.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0023.7%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0037.2%———56.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0033.2%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0040.7%—1.5%—60.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0041.7%—46.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0050.0%———60.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0050.6%—4.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0037.6%—2.2%—46.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0038.6%—66.7%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0048.0%—57.8%—43.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0046.7%—11.9%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0027.1%6.8%36.1%52.0%33.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:004.0%—1.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble69%81.2°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single55%80.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%80.0°F6.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%79.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON34%75.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%72.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261027-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗