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KSAT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
69%
AIFS
55%
WN2
48%
ICON
34%
HRES
15%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u
VS
HRESNO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.00u · HRES −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:00ICON: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 13:1010-20 15:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0054.9%67.6%48.4%14.9%33.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0054.9%67.6%48.4%14.9%33.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0054.9%67.6%48.4%14.9%33.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0054.9%67.6%48.4%14.9%33.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0054.9%67.6%48.4%14.9%33.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0054.9%67.6%48.4%14.9%33.7%
2026-10-20T15:32:37+00:0054.9%69.1%48.4%14.9%33.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble69%81.2°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single55%80.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%80.0°F6.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%79.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON34%75.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%72.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261027-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗