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KSAT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
13%
WN2
12%
EPS
6%
HRES
2%
AIFS
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.3¢Risks 3.63u
VS
AIFSNO 92.8¢Risks 46.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.38u · AIFS −46.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 12.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.1%———0.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.8%———14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:006.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0029.7%———11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.6%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.0%———12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0013.4%———24.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:008.7%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0012.8%———15.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0020.1%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0028.3%———17.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0021.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0027.4%———24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0029.2%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0030.1%———28.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0020.8%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:008.6%———33.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.5%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:009.3%———20.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:007.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0010.3%—0.1%—22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0010.4%—12.8%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0014.3%———21.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0014.3%—0.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:007.8%—0.1%—11.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:007.9%—24.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0011.7%—17.2%—9.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—0.9%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:003.6%0.4%6.2%12.8%5.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.1%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——17.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend14%80.0°F6.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON13%75.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%80.6°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%81.2°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%72.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%73.8°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗