KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

87%

77%

72%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.5¢Risks 70.55u

EPSNO 29.4¢Risks 29.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.45u · EPS −29.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	28.4%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	0.4%	51.3%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	68.9%	65.1%	33.6%	—	61.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	93.1%	79.0%	92.9%	—	79.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	93.5%	82.6%	88.2%	—	85.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	1.0%	92.2%	94.3%	—	94.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	97.7%	95.9%	97.3%	—	93.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	12.8%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	97.5%	93.0%	97.7%	—	95.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	98.2%	95.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	98.9%	95.4%	98.2%	—	96.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	99.0%	96.4%	—	—	97.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	99.3%	96.2%	98.9%	—	99.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	99.4%	98.4%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	98.8%	98.6%	99.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	98.8%	99.5%	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	99.5%	99.7%	99.1%	—	99.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	99.4%	99.6%	1.8%	—	99.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	99.8%	99.6%	98.7%	93.9%	99.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	99.8%	99.8%	98.5%	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	99.3%	99.9%	98.2%	89.4%	99.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	99.3%	99.9%	98.4%	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	99.6%	99.7%	98.7%	92.1%	99.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	99.5%	99.9%	97.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	99.8%	99.9%	98.5%	88.5%	100.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	99.9%	100.0%	98.5%	94.3%	100.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	100.0%	98.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0079
WeatherNext 2	87%	71.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0164
ICON	77%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0538
IFS HRES	72%	69.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0812
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗