KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

87%

77%

72%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.5¢Risks 70.55u

EPSNO 29.4¢Risks 29.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.45u · EPS −29.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:51:49+00:00	90.5%	40.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00	90.5%	40.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00	90.5%	40.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00	90.5%	40.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00	90.5%	40.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T11:37:55+00:00	90.5%	40.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00	90.5%	50.7%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00	90.5%	50.7%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00	92.2%	50.7%	83.2%	97.0%	12.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00	92.2%	50.7%	83.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T15:28:01+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	83.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	87.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	87.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	87.2%	97.0%	12.1%
2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-09T23:44:52+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-10T02:00:52+00:00	91.1%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	91.1%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	91.1%	50.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0079
WeatherNext 2	87%	71.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0164
ICON	77%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0538
IFS HRES	72%	69.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0812
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗