KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

87%

86%

65%

65%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

EPSNO 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +21.80u · EPS −21.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	8.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	0.0%	20.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	34.9%	31.1%	9.6%	—	27.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	71.5%	45.6%	70.9%	—	45.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	71.1%	49.2%	59.1%	—	53.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	0.0%	66.3%	71.9%	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	82.7%	75.5%	81.0%	—	69.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	1.4%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	80.4%	64.6%	81.6%	—	73.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	83.4%	69.8%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	87.1%	70.3%	82.8%	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	87.3%	73.2%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	89.3%	71.3%	85.8%	—	86.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	89.0%	81.0%	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	83.0%	81.7%	84.9%	—	83.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	82.4%	89.9%	—	—	85.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	89.1%	91.5%	84.5%	—	89.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	86.5%	89.3%	0.0%	—	88.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	92.4%	89.0%	77.6%	53.5%	87.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	90.8%	90.8%	74.7%	—	90.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	80.9%	93.3%	70.2%	37.7%	90.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	80.0%	93.2%	69.8%	—	90.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	84.3%	86.6%	70.5%	39.4%	88.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	78.9%	90.2%	58.3%	—	90.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	85.4%	89.8%	64.2%	26.8%	95.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	90.1%	95.2%	76.4%	—	93.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	83.9%	98.2%	57.9%	34.6%	92.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.4%	73.3%	98.4%	58.2%	—	95.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0077
WeatherNext 2	87%	74.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0169
IFS HRES	86%	75.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0196
IFS Ensemble	65%	72.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1211
AIFS Single	65%	72.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1211
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗