KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

87%

86%

65%

65%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

EPSNO 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +21.80u · EPS −21.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:58+00:00	70.2%	61.1%	87.6%	82.5%	88.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	70.2%	61.1%	87.6%	82.5%	88.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	70.2%	61.1%	85.5%	82.5%	88.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	70.2%	61.1%	85.5%	82.5%	88.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	70.2%	61.1%	85.5%	82.5%	88.6%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	69.9%	61.1%	85.5%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	69.9%	61.1%	85.5%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	69.9%	61.1%	85.5%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	69.9%	61.1%	85.5%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	69.9%	61.1%	85.5%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	69.9%	61.1%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	69.9%	65.0%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	69.9%	65.0%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	66.0%	65.0%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	66.0%	65.0%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	66.0%	65.0%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	66.0%	65.0%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	66.0%	65.2%	87.6%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	66.0%	65.2%	85.2%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	66.0%	65.2%	85.2%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	66.0%	65.2%	85.2%	87.3%	87.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	85.2%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	85.2%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	85.2%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	85.2%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	63.6%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	65.2%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	65.2%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	65.2%	65.2%	87.0%	86.0%	91.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0077
WeatherNext 2	87%	74.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0169
IFS HRES	86%	75.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0196
IFS Ensemble	65%	72.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1211
AIFS Single	65%	72.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1211
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗