KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

80%

60%

41%

36%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

ICONNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.70u · ICON −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:25+00:00	48.3%	47.2%	72.2%	75.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	48.3%	47.2%	72.2%	75.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	48.3%	47.2%	69.5%	75.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	48.3%	47.2%	69.5%	75.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	48.3%	47.2%	69.5%	75.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	46.3%	47.2%	69.5%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	46.3%	47.2%	69.5%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	46.3%	47.2%	69.5%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	46.3%	47.2%	69.5%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	46.3%	47.2%	69.5%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	46.3%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	46.3%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	46.3%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	71.4%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	43.5%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	83.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	72.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	72.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	72.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	81.3%	85.9%	72.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	49.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	48.1%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	72.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	52.0%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	52.0%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	52.0%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	52.0%	58.6%	72.4%	82.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:37+00:00	52.0%	58.6%	72.4%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	52.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	52.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	52.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	54.9%	57.1%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	74.1%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	79.9%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	79.9%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	54.9%	57.2%	79.9%	90.6%	73.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	79.9%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	79.9%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	79.9%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	79.9%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	79.9%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	78.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	88.4%	76.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	74.1%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	50.0%	57.2%	75.3%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	50.0%	55.9%	75.3%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	50.0%	55.9%	75.3%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	75.3%	90.2%	45.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	52.0%	55.9%	74.3%	90.2%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	74.3%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	74.3%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	74.3%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	74.3%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	51.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	76.5%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	45.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	41.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	41.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	41.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	41.0%	55.9%	70.9%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	41.0%	59.9%	79.7%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	41.0%	59.9%	79.7%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	41.0%	59.9%	79.7%	87.1%	35.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	41.0%	59.9%	79.7%	87.1%	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	87%	76.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0166
WeatherNext 2	80%	74.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0412
IFS Ensemble	60%	73.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1608
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1681
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3125
AIFS Single	41%	71.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3481
ICON	36%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4160

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗