KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

80%

60%

41%

36%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

ICONNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.70u · ICON −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	5.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	4.3%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	0.0%	12.4%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	23.0%	19.9%	4.9%	—	17.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	58.0%	31.7%	57.3%	—	31.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	56.8%	34.4%	43.9%	—	38.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	0.0%	50.8%	57.1%	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	70.0%	60.7%	67.8%	—	53.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.4%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	66.2%	47.4%	67.8%	—	57.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	69.8%	52.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	74.9%	52.8%	68.6%	—	55.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	74.7%	55.7%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	77.5%	52.9%	72.1%	—	72.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	76.6%	64.7%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	67.0%	65.1%	69.7%	—	67.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	65.5%	77.2%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	75.3%	79.4%	67.9%	—	76.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	70.4%	75.1%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	80.1%	74.0%	57.0%	31.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	76.6%	76.6%	52.4%	—	76.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	59.9%	80.9%	46.3%	17.4%	74.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	57.7%	80.0%	44.9%	—	75.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	63.2%	66.9%	44.6%	17.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	54.2%	72.4%	31.2%	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	62.8%	70.7%	35.8%	8.9%	83.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	70.2%	81.9%	48.5%	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	57.9%	90.4%	27.6%	11.7%	75.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	41.8%	90.8%	26.7%	—	79.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	87%	76.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0166
WeatherNext 2	80%	74.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0412
IFS Ensemble	60%	73.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1608
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1681
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3125
AIFS Single	41%	71.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3481
ICON	36%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4160

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗