KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

70%

63%

48%

41%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.4¢Risks 62.40u

HRESNO 37.6¢Risks 37.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.60u · HRES −37.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	6.9%	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	69.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	61.2%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	89.5%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	55.6%	81.1%	74.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	91.8%	63.6%	—	46.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	64.2%	58.3%	51.5%	—	43.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	62.5%	77.6%	83.7%	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	56.6%	35.3%	67.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	35.8%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	70.1%	37.9%	46.5%	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	61.5%	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	42.7%	70.3%	80.4%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	63.9%	79.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	69.6%	65.2%	66.1%	—	39.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	58.9%	69.2%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	62.2%	75.7%	41.8%	—	37.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	41.6%	73.0%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	47.8%	47.8%	53.3%	1.1%	42.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	52.2%	25.8%	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	48.8%	35.2%	36.3%	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	37.0%	77.5%	45.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	50.0%	34.2%	37.7%	52.5%	33.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	38.5%	47.4%	37.3%	—	32.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	38.1%	30.7%	40.7%	43.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	40.3%	39.0%	37.7%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	55.8%	34.5%	38.6%	25.6%	26.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	63.3%	38.1%	24.8%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	46.8%	7.7%	30.3%	31.7%	19.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	45.1%	7.9%	41.8%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	70.5°F	8.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.6972
ICON	70%	67.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.4970
WeatherNext 2	63%	64.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.3931
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.3058
AIFS Single	48%	62.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.2294
IFS HRES	41%	61.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1706

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 63°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗