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KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
ICON
70%
WN2
63%
AIFS
48%
HRES
41%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.4¢Risks 62.40u
VS
HRESNO 37.6¢Risks 37.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.60u · HRES −37.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:0010-10 22:2810-11 01:2910-11 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:0038.7%83.5%73.5%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:0038.7%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:0038.7%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:0038.7%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:0047.9%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:0047.9%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0047.9%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:0047.9%83.5%62.7%41.3%70.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%70.5°F8.2°F2026-10-10 00:000.6972
ICON70%67.8°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.4970
WeatherNext 263%64.1°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.3931
National Blend55%63.0°F3.8°F2026-10-10 06:000.3058
AIFS Single48%62.2°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.2294
IFS HRES41%61.1°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.1706

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 63°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗