KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

56%

49%

44%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.55u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.45u · ICON −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	55.0%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	66.4%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	86.1%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	48.6%	75.9%	68.3%	—	34.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	88.7%	56.6%	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	56.8%	50.8%	43.9%	—	35.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	71.2%	78.2%	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	48.3%	27.9%	59.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	28.1%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	62.1%	29.9%	37.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	52.7%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	33.9%	61.8%	73.4%	—	33.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	54.7%	71.6%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	60.6%	55.8%	56.8%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	49.0%	59.9%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	52.1%	67.0%	32.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	31.6%	63.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	37.1%	37.1%	42.4%	0.5%	32.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	41.0%	17.5%	3.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	37.4%	25.1%	26.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	26.3%	67.5%	33.6%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	37.7%	23.6%	26.6%	40.1%	22.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	26.9%	34.9%	25.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	26.2%	20.0%	28.4%	30.7%	20.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	27.6%	26.5%	25.3%	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	41.4%	22.2%	25.6%	15.4%	16.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	48.5%	24.8%	14.4%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	31.7%	3.4%	18.1%	19.2%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	29.5%	3.4%	26.7%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9880
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	56%	64.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
WeatherNext 2	49%	63.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2362
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1901
ICON	26%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0660
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0615

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗