KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

56%

49%

44%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.55u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.45u · ICON −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	40.8%	80.3%	54.8%	35.3%	66.9%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	40.8%	80.3%	55.6%	35.3%	66.9%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	40.8%	80.3%	55.6%	35.3%	66.9%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	40.8%	80.3%	55.6%	35.3%	66.9%
2026-10-11T07:32:38+00:00	64.8%	80.3%	55.6%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	64.8%	80.3%	55.6%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	64.8%	80.3%	55.6%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	64.8%	80.3%	55.6%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T10:34:18+00:00	64.8%	80.3%	55.6%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	64.8%	94.9%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	64.8%	94.9%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	64.8%	94.9%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	66.8%	94.9%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	66.1%	94.6%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T15:12:10+00:00	66.1%	94.7%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	66.1%	94.7%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	66.1%	94.7%	58.7%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	66.1%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	66.1%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	66.1%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	66.9%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	56.1%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	50.8%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T04:01:58+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	55.3%	94.7%	43.9%	48.2%	73.5%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	60.5%	94.7%	43.9%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	60.5%	94.7%	43.9%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	60.5%	94.7%	43.9%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	60.5%	94.7%	43.9%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	60.5%	94.7%	43.9%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	60.5%	94.7%	35.6%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	60.5%	99.1%	35.6%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	60.5%	99.1%	35.6%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	54.9%	99.1%	35.6%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	54.9%	99.1%	35.7%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	54.9%	99.1%	35.7%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	54.9%	99.2%	35.7%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	54.9%	99.2%	35.7%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	54.9%	99.2%	39.4%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	54.9%	99.2%	39.4%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	54.9%	99.2%	39.4%	61.6%	70.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	39.4%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	39.4%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	39.4%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	39.4%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	58.9%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	62.8%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	62.8%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	62.8%	99.2%	45.1%	71.6%	65.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	59.7%	99.5%	47.4%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	59.7%	99.5%	51.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	59.7%	99.5%	51.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	59.7%	99.5%	51.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	59.7%	99.5%	51.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	51.3%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	51.3%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	51.3%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	51.3%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	60.7%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	61.6%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	34.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	57.0%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	57.0%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	57.0%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	57.0%	99.5%	47.4%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	57.0%	99.4%	48.6%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	57.0%	99.4%	48.6%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	57.0%	99.4%	48.6%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	57.0%	99.4%	48.6%	47.1%	25.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	56.0%	99.4%	48.6%	43.6%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9880
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	56%	64.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
WeatherNext 2	49%	63.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2362
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1901
ICON	26%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0660
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0615

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗