KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

70%

68%

52%

44%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.9¢Risks 63.95u

ICONNO 36.1¢Risks 36.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.05u · ICON −36.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	28.2%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	75.6%	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	94.7%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	87.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	48.6%	68.3%	34.9%	—	53.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	42.0%	67.0%	74.6%	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	45.4%	66.3%	64.2%	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	56.4%	75.8%	56.4%	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	57.5%	51.7%	72.1%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	15.2%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	37.9%	51.7%	42.2%	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	26.4%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	45.4%	50.0%	55.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	48.1%	30.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	42.3%	41.3%	62.4%	—	42.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	30.8%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	39.8%	58.2%	70.6%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	29.8%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	30.1%	52.2%	66.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	30.5%	40.0%	9.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	35.2%	59.2%	66.9%	—	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	38.1%	69.6%	71.7%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	48.8%	63.4%	63.4%	40.1%	35.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	61.5%	70.9%	66.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	60.6%	58.0%	69.3%	44.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	59.7%	67.5%	71.2%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	58.6%	65.5%	64.2%	50.0%	35.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	56.0%	61.9%	56.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	53.2%	63.9%	54.7%	40.6%	27.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	33.9%	56.6%	32.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	62.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	60.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	60.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	59.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	58.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	44%	58.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗