KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

70%

68%

52%

44%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.9¢Risks 63.95u

ICONNO 36.1¢Risks 36.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.05u · ICON −36.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	60.4%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	72.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	60.4%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	72.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	60.4%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	60.4%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	60.4%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	72.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	55.2%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	51.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	55.2%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	51.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	55.2%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	51.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	55.2%	85.3%	72.8%	62.2%	51.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:37+00:00	55.2%	85.3%	72.8%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	55.2%	83.3%	65.7%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	55.2%	83.3%	65.7%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	55.2%	83.3%	65.7%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	68.4%	83.3%	65.7%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	68.4%	83.0%	65.7%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	68.4%	83.6%	65.7%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	68.4%	83.6%	65.7%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	68.4%	83.6%	65.7%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	68.4%	83.6%	70.5%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	68.4%	83.6%	70.5%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	68.4%	83.6%	70.5%	50.8%	52.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	75.0%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	65.7%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	75.7%	83.6%	70.5%	65.5%	59.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	67.1%	83.6%	70.5%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	67.1%	83.6%	70.5%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	67.1%	83.6%	70.5%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	67.1%	83.6%	70.5%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	67.1%	83.6%	70.5%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	67.1%	83.6%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	67.1%	84.9%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	67.1%	84.9%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	72.8%	84.9%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	72.8%	84.7%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	72.8%	85.5%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	72.8%	85.5%	65.0%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	72.8%	85.5%	69.3%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	72.8%	85.5%	69.3%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	72.8%	85.5%	69.3%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	72.8%	85.5%	69.3%	46.4%	49.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	69.3%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	69.3%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	69.3%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	69.3%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	65.0%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	69.7%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	69.7%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	69.7%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	69.7%	85.5%	62.8%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	69.7%	85.2%	69.7%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	69.7%	85.2%	69.7%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	69.7%	85.2%	69.7%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	69.7%	85.2%	69.7%	58.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	69.7%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	69.7%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	69.7%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	69.7%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	70.6%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	26.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	67.4%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	71.4%	85.1%	70.8%	59.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	72.8%	85.1%	70.8%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	72.8%	85.1%	70.8%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	72.8%	85.1%	70.8%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	72.8%	85.1%	70.8%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	72.8%	85.1%	70.8%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	72.8%	82.4%	72.0%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	72.8%	82.4%	72.0%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	72.8%	82.4%	72.0%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	72.8%	82.4%	72.0%	63.7%	34.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	72.9%	81.9%	72.0%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	72.9%	83.5%	72.0%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	72.9%	83.5%	72.0%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	72.9%	83.5%	72.0%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	72.9%	83.5%	69.7%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	72.9%	83.5%	69.7%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	72.9%	83.5%	69.7%	63.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	71.2%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	66.0%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	67.6%	83.5%	69.7%	52.1%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	62.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	60.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	60.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	59.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	58.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	44%	58.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗