KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.1¢Risks 16.15u

ICONNO 83.9¢Risks 83.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +83.85u · ICON −83.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	34.1%	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	68.2%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.2%	22.4%	5.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	6.9%	19.9%	26.6%	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	7.3%	17.9%	16.4%	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	10.8%	24.2%	10.8%	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	10.1%	7.7%	18.9%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.6%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.2%	6.8%	4.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.4%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	4.1%	5.3%	7.0%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	1.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	2.9%	2.7%	8.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.9%	5.5%	10.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.8%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.7%	3.1%	7.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.6%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.8%	3.5%	5.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.8%	5.5%	6.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	3.3%	3.3%	0.7%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.4%	4.3%	3.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	1.6%	3.2%	0.6%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	2.3%	3.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	1.6%	1.5%	0.5%	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	29%	63.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	59.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	59.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	58.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	58.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗