KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

83%

82%

42%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

ICONNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · ICON −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	57.8%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	28.8%	52.7%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	53.5%	41.6%	31.7%	—	57.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	44.2%	68.3%	70.9%	—	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	40.2%	16.9%	53.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	63.3%	78.8%	62.5%	—	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	73.5%	51.7%	52.5%	—	63.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	24.6%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	27.7%	79.2%	82.8%	—	59.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	28.7%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	17.2%	86.1%	85.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	46.2%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	52.9%	77.5%	85.3%	—	56.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	44.0%	76.6%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	56.1%	77.3%	86.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	81.0%	78.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	77.0%	76.2%	86.3%	0.5%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	81.0%	81.0%	10.7%	—	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	72.0%	87.9%	93.5%	75.8%	73.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	86.1%	74.7%	95.2%	—	78.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	80.9%	77.3%	94.8%	—	77.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	90.2%	84.2%	94.7%	—	74.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	88.0%	91.1%	95.0%	93.0%	85.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	89.6%	91.9%	96.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	93.2%	98.2%	97.7%	94.9%	96.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	93.0%	99.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	61.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	60.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	61.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	58.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	55.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗