KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

83%

82%

42%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

ICONNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · ICON −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:27+00:00	57.8%	84.6%	71.3%	71.5%	69.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	57.8%	84.6%	71.3%	71.5%	69.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	57.8%	84.6%	71.3%	71.5%	69.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	57.8%	84.6%	71.3%	71.5%	69.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	57.8%	84.6%	71.3%	71.5%	69.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	76.3%	84.6%	71.3%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	76.3%	84.6%	71.3%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	76.3%	84.6%	71.3%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	76.3%	84.6%	71.3%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	76.3%	84.6%	71.3%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	76.3%	83.5%	71.5%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	76.3%	83.5%	71.5%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	76.3%	83.5%	71.5%	57.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	63.3%	83.5%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	63.3%	83.5%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	63.3%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	63.3%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	63.3%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	63.3%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	63.3%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	63.3%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	65.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	71.5%	57.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	74.4%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	50.8%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	65.4%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	62.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	74.8%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	74.8%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	74.8%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	74.8%	83.6%	74.3%	67.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:37+00:00	74.8%	83.6%	74.3%	58.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	74.8%	80.0%	72.0%	58.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	74.8%	80.0%	72.0%	58.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	74.8%	80.0%	72.0%	58.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	67.9%	80.0%	72.0%	58.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	67.8%	80.0%	72.0%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	67.8%	79.9%	72.0%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	67.8%	79.9%	72.0%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	67.8%	79.9%	72.0%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	67.8%	79.9%	73.7%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	67.8%	79.9%	73.7%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	67.8%	79.9%	73.7%	58.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	73.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	73.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	73.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	73.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	73.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	86.1%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	84.7%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	81.6%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	81.6%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	75.3%	79.9%	81.6%	83.0%	82.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	75.0%	79.9%	81.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	75.0%	79.9%	81.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	75.0%	79.9%	81.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	75.0%	79.9%	81.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	75.0%	79.9%	81.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	75.0%	79.9%	84.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	75.0%	82.3%	84.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	75.0%	82.3%	84.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	83.6%	82.3%	84.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	83.7%	82.3%	84.6%	82.1%	41.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	83.7%	83.3%	84.6%	82.1%	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	61.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	60.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	61.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	58.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	55.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗