KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

82%

70%

44%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

ICONNO 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.50u · ICON −31.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	45.8%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	33.0%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	18.4%	39.3%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	39.6%	28.6%	20.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	30.4%	54.4%	57.3%	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	26.4%	9.0%	38.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	47.6%	65.5%	46.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	58.3%	35.3%	36.1%	—	46.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	13.2%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	15.1%	64.6%	69.3%	—	42.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	15.5%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	7.9%	73.4%	72.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	28.4%	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	33.9%	60.6%	71.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	25.7%	58.9%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	35.9%	59.2%	72.4%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	63.5%	59.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	57.6%	56.5%	70.8%	0.1%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	62.2%	62.2%	3.5%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	50.0%	72.0%	82.5%	54.6%	51.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	52.4%	85.5%	—	57.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	59.9%	55.0%	84.1%	—	55.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	74.1%	63.9%	83.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	69.3%	74.9%	83.5%	79.0%	65.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	71.2%	75.8%	87.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	77.8%	91.6%	89.8%	81.8%	84.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	76.4%	96.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	62.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	62.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	60.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	58.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗