KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

82%

70%

44%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

ICONNO 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.50u · ICON −31.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	40.1%	72.3%	49.2%	38.8%	46.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	40.1%	72.3%	49.2%	38.8%	46.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	40.1%	72.3%	49.2%	38.8%	46.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	40.1%	72.3%	49.2%	38.8%	46.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	40.1%	72.3%	49.2%	38.8%	46.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	70.7%	68.1%	68.6%	69.8%	26.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	70.7%	68.1%	71.4%	69.8%	26.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	70.7%	68.1%	71.4%	69.8%	26.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	70.7%	68.1%	71.4%	69.8%	26.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	70.7%	68.1%	71.4%	69.8%	26.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	71.4%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	71.4%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	71.4%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	71.4%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	72.2%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	74.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	66.8%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	74.4%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	74.4%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	74.4%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	74.4%	68.1%	68.6%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	74.4%	64.8%	70.3%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	74.4%	64.8%	70.3%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	74.4%	64.8%	70.3%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	74.4%	64.8%	70.3%	65.5%	40.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	77.3%	64.7%	70.3%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	77.3%	65.7%	70.3%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	77.3%	65.7%	70.3%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	77.3%	65.7%	70.3%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	77.3%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	77.3%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	77.3%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	43.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	43.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	43.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	78.8%	72.7%	43.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	78.8%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	81.9%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	80.5%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	82.9%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	82.9%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	79.3%	65.7%	82.9%	74.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	83.1%	65.7%	82.9%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	83.1%	65.7%	82.9%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	83.1%	65.7%	82.9%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	83.1%	65.7%	82.9%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	83.1%	65.7%	82.9%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	83.1%	66.0%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	83.1%	66.0%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	83.1%	66.0%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	82.5%	66.0%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	82.5%	65.7%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	82.5%	67.8%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	82.5%	67.8%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	82.5%	67.8%	81.7%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	82.5%	67.8%	87.1%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	82.5%	67.8%	87.1%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	82.5%	67.8%	87.1%	63.4%	54.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	87.1%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	87.1%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	87.1%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	87.1%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	87.1%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	80.6%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	86.4%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	89.0%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	89.0%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	89.0%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	81.2%	67.8%	89.0%	81.0%	46.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	82.0%	67.8%	89.0%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	82.0%	67.8%	89.0%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	82.0%	67.8%	89.0%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	82.0%	67.8%	89.0%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	82.0%	67.8%	89.0%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	82.0%	70.2%	92.6%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	82.0%	70.2%	92.6%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	82.0%	70.2%	92.6%	84.0%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	82.0%	69.7%	92.6%	84.1%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	82.0%	69.7%	92.6%	84.1%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	62.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	62.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	60.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	58.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗