KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

20%

14%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.8¢Risks 14.80u

ICONNO 85.2¢Risks 85.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.20u · ICON −85.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	12.1%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	5.7%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.8%	7.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	6.7%	3.6%	2.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	3.6%	12.0%	13.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.4%	0.4%	5.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.2%	15.9%	6.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	10.4%	3.3%	3.4%	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.5%	12.2%	15.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.1%	16.0%	15.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.3%	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.7%	7.5%	12.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.8%	6.3%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.5%	5.8%	11.3%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	5.2%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	4.2%	4.0%	8.5%	0.0%	1.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.1%	7.2%	13.4%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	5.1%	2.0%	14.5%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.6%	2.0%	11.8%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.3%	2.8%	9.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.2%	4.6%	8.4%	6.1%	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.0%	4.0%	9.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.7%	12.2%	10.2%	5.1%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	2.7%	19.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	27%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	62.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	60.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	62.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗