KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

20%

14%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.8¢Risks 14.80u

ICONNO 85.2¢Risks 85.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.20u · ICON −85.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	9.1%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	9.1%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	9.1%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	9.1%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	9.1%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	9.5%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	6.6%	22.4%	9.5%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	6.6%	22.4%	9.5%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	10.9%	22.4%	9.5%	8.3%	21.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	11.0%	22.4%	9.5%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	11.0%	22.4%	9.5%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	11.0%	21.8%	9.5%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	11.0%	21.8%	9.5%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	11.0%	21.8%	11.4%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	11.0%	21.8%	11.4%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	11.0%	21.8%	11.4%	8.3%	21.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	11.4%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	11.4%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	11.4%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	11.4%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:27+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	8.0%	21.8%	10.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	16.4%	21.8%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	16.4%	21.8%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	16.4%	21.8%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	16.4%	21.8%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	16.4%	21.8%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	16.4%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	16.4%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	16.4%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	8.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	18.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	17.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	17.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	17.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	8.1%	12.0%	17.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	9.5%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	4.7%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	9.6%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	17.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	12.5%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	21.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	12.5%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	21.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	12.5%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	21.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	12.5%	18.6%	9.6%	18.0%	21.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:38+00:00	12.5%	18.6%	9.6%	8.8%	21.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	12.5%	11.4%	5.5%	8.8%	21.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	12.5%	11.4%	5.5%	8.8%	21.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	12.5%	11.4%	5.5%	8.8%	21.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	8.8%	11.4%	5.5%	8.8%	21.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	8.9%	11.4%	5.4%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	8.9%	10.5%	5.4%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	8.9%	10.5%	5.4%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	8.9%	10.5%	5.4%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	8.9%	10.5%	6.0%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	8.9%	10.5%	6.0%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	8.9%	10.5%	6.0%	8.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	6.0%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	6.0%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	6.0%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	6.0%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	6.0%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	23.4%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	12.1%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	9.9%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	9.9%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	13.0%	10.5%	9.9%	27.2%	28.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	9.9%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	9.9%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	9.9%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	9.9%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	9.9%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	8.1%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	10.0%	10.2%	8.1%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	10.0%	10.2%	8.1%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	16.4%	10.2%	8.1%	18.9%	1.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	16.3%	10.2%	8.1%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	16.3%	10.3%	8.1%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	16.3%	10.3%	8.1%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	16.3%	10.3%	9.4%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	16.3%	10.3%	9.4%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	16.3%	10.3%	9.4%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	16.3%	10.3%	9.4%	18.9%	2.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	9.4%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	9.4%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	9.4%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	9.4%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	17.4%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	13.8%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	13.8%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	13.8%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	13.8%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	13.8%	10.3%	10.8%	15.9%	0.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	10.1%	16.8%	2.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	10.1%	16.8%	2.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	10.1%	16.8%	2.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	10.1%	16.8%	2.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	10.1%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	23.4%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	11.2%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	13.0%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	13.0%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	20.7%	8.6%	13.0%	18.0%	2.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	20.1%	10.8%	15.1%	20.3%	2.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	19.4%	10.8%	15.1%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	19.4%	10.8%	15.1%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	19.4%	10.8%	15.1%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	19.4%	10.8%	15.1%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	19.4%	10.8%	15.1%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	19.4%	15.4%	16.8%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	19.4%	15.4%	16.8%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	19.4%	15.4%	16.8%	18.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	19.4%	16.2%	16.8%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	19.4%	16.2%	16.8%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	16.8%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	16.8%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	18.7%	1.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	11.5%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	19.4%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	20.1%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	20.1%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	20.1%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	20.1%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	20.1%	14.4%	12.8%	26.8%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	27%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	62.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	60.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	62.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗