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KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 07:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
37%
HRES
6%
AIFS
4%
EPS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u
VS
WN2NO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.55u · WN2 −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 45.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 50.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 40.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 54.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0054.8%————54.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0064.1%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0034.5%————11.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0012.6%————12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:003.6%————8.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:007.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0028.3%————16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0012.8%————18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0010.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0015.6%————15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0014.0%————14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0033.4%————14.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0034.5%————24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0025.6%————21.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0043.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0028.3%————21.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0037.5%—21.0%——22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0046.3%—22.9%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0066.5%————23.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0040.5%—15.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0039.7%—29.5%——27.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0029.7%—20.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0047.3%45.3%22.8%——22.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0037.8%—28.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0046.5%21.4%31.1%40.9%—18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0044.3%—35.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0024.9%27.9%11.3%10.0%—19.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0038.2%—18.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0050.8%30.3%57.6%20.0%—21.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0034.8%—7.7%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0024.8%12.7%5.5%13.1%—18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0032.6%—11.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0012.5%7.1%18.9%18.4%—12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0022.6%43.2%49.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0024.8%38.8%4.5%3.4%—13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0015.5%36.8%5.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0013.4%50.9%2.2%2.3%—12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0016.5%19.6%1.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0011.6%14.7%4.2%2.1%—12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:008.8%19.7%4.2%——11.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.8%11.8%3.8%1.6%—12.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:006.2%2.6%3.3%——14.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.2%3.3%3.5%1.4%92.7%9.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.0%2.2%2.2%54.5%—7.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:004.5%4.0%1.0%0.4%3.1%3.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.5%1.1%3.1%0.2%—2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:003.0%1.7%2.3%0.2%—2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.8%0.5%1.1%0.2%—2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.4%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.2%0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.7%0.4%0.3%0.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.1%0.0%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON37%54.1°F4.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES6%60.5°F5.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%59.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
AIFS Single4%60.5°F4.6°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%60.4°F4.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%60.3°F3.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
National Blend<1%58.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗