KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 07:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

WN2NO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.55u · WN2 −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	6.1%	3.9%	3.1%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	6.1%	3.9%	3.1%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	6.1%	3.9%	3.1%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	6.1%	3.9%	3.1%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	6.1%	3.9%	3.1%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	6.1%	3.9%	1.8%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	6.1%	2.9%	1.8%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	6.1%	2.9%	1.8%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.8%	4.3%	26.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.8%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	1.8%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	1.8%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	1.5%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	1.5%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	1.5%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	1.5%	4.3%	26.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.5%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.5%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.5%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.5%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.2%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.8%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.8%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.8%	5.5%	37.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	1.8%	5.5%	37.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	37%	54.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	60.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	60.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗