KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

79%

77%

69%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

EPSNO 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.60u · EPS −20.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	33.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	34.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	12.1%	58.7%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	63.8%	38.2%	16.6%	—	51.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	63.6%	86.5%	61.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	64.9%	67.7%	50.8%	—	64.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	57.1%	65.5%	81.6%	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	51.7%	76.8%	44.2%	—	61.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	11.9%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	74.5%	73.8%	75.9%	—	55.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	58.0%	72.1%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	59.1%	47.2%	77.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	84.6%	57.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	84.7%	70.4%	78.2%	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	76.6%	72.6%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	79.5%	74.9%	83.0%	0.4%	66.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	87.4%	70.2%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	86.9%	80.2%	87.5%	—	70.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	91.7%	85.9%	22.3%	—	75.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	92.4%	89.0%	92.4%	0.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	93.4%	91.8%	94.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	94.5%	93.7%	93.7%	87.6%	90.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	94.4%	93.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	63.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	60.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	79%	62.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	61.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	59.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗