KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

79%

78%

71%

59%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

ICONNO 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +31.00u · ICON −31.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	18.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	4.7%	38.7%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	43.0%	20.4%	6.7%	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	42.0%	70.9%	39.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	42.4%	45.4%	28.9%	—	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	33.7%	42.1%	61.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	27.9%	54.2%	21.9%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	3.4%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	50.0%	49.1%	51.7%	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	31.8%	46.4%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	32.2%	22.3%	51.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	30.1%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	61.5%	42.3%	51.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	49.0%	44.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	52.1%	45.9%	57.2%	0.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	63.5%	39.5%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	61.8%	51.1%	62.9%	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	70.4%	59.0%	5.4%	—	43.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	71.0%	63.7%	71.0%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	72.7%	68.5%	76.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	74.4%	72.4%	72.4%	58.7%	63.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	73.1%	69.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	63.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	62.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗