KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

22%

21%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.1¢Risks 18.15u

WN2NO 81.8¢Risks 81.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.85u · WN2 −81.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	3.0%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.4%	9.6%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	10.9%	3.0%	0.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.6%	29.1%	8.7%	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	9.0%	10.3%	4.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	5.3%	8.1%	18.4%	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	3.3%	12.5%	2.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.1%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	9.4%	9.0%	10.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	3.4%	7.5%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	3.2%	1.6%	9.0%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	13.2%	2.6%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.1%	4.9%	7.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	6.3%	4.9%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.7%	4.9%	8.6%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	10.6%	3.1%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	9.0%	5.3%	9.4%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	12.3%	7.1%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.6%	8.1%	11.6%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.4%	9.2%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	11.2%	10.0%	10.0%	4.9%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	9.2%	7.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	30%	63.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	62.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗