KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

74%

72%

67%

65%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.0¢Risks 36.52u

ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 13.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.48u · ICON −13.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	33.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	10.8%	—	40.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	52.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	55.7%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	15.6%	—	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	73.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	4.2%	78.7%	—	54.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	74.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	48.6%	68.9%	8.5%	65.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	59.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	43.4%	71.5%	76.3%	60.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	37.2%	82.6%	40.9%	53.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	81.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	77.0%	70.5%	64.8%	57.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	72.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	64.7%	55.0%	71.4%	54.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	28.8%	70.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	87.8%	87.4%	77.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	83.9%	89.2%	—	76.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	89.8%	91.7%	86.1%	79.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	90.0%	90.8%	—	82.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	94.4%	93.8%	90.6%	85.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	96.8%	97.3%	—	86.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	95.1%	96.7%	92.6%	89.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	95.8%	98.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	96.2%	98.9%	91.9%	92.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	94.3%	98.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	63.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	61.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	62.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	61.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗