KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

84%

83%

70%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.4¢Risks 80.40u

EPSNO 19.6¢Risks 19.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.60u · EPS −19.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	12.0%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	2.9%	73.5%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	41.6%	62.4%	6.0%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	36.4%	65.0%	70.3%	—	53.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	30.3%	77.2%	33.7%	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	70.5%	63.3%	57.1%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	56.6%	46.7%	63.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	22.0%	62.6%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	82.8%	82.2%	70.9%	—	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	77.8%	84.5%	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	85.1%	87.6%	80.4%	—	72.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	85.2%	86.3%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	91.0%	90.2%	85.8%	—	79.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	94.6%	95.3%	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	91.8%	94.2%	88.2%	—	84.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	92.8%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	93.4%	97.7%	86.9%	—	87.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	90.3%	97.3%	1.8%	—	85.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	87.9%	98.0%	91.5%	0.0%	89.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	89.8%	97.3%	92.2%	—	89.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	96.0%	98.6%	91.5%	94.1%	94.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	98.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	89%	65.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	63.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	62.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗