KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

84%

83%

70%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.4¢Risks 80.40u

EPSNO 19.6¢Risks 19.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.60u · EPS −19.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	76.0%	58.9%	66.6%	66.4%	59.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	76.0%	58.9%	71.1%	66.4%	59.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	76.0%	58.9%	71.1%	66.4%	59.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	76.0%	58.9%	71.1%	66.4%	59.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	76.0%	58.9%	71.1%	66.4%	59.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	71.1%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	71.1%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	71.1%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	71.1%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	75.4%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	70.4%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	74.2%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	76.6%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	76.6%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	76.6%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	76.6%	58.9%	66.6%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	76.6%	61.8%	66.9%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	76.6%	61.8%	66.9%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	76.6%	61.8%	66.9%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	76.6%	61.8%	66.9%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	76.6%	61.8%	66.9%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	76.6%	61.5%	66.9%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	76.6%	61.5%	66.9%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	76.6%	61.5%	66.9%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	76.6%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	76.6%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	76.6%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	81.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	72.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	72.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	72.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	72.0%	67.4%	72.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	72.0%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	76.0%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	78.2%	81.6%	72.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	84.2%	61.5%	78.2%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	84.2%	61.5%	78.2%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	84.2%	61.5%	78.2%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	84.2%	61.5%	78.2%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	84.2%	61.5%	78.2%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	84.2%	69.7%	84.0%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	84.2%	69.7%	84.0%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	84.2%	69.7%	84.0%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	82.6%	69.7%	84.0%	91.3%	89.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	82.6%	69.5%	83.9%	91.3%	89.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	89%	65.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	63.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	62.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗