KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

75%

74%

56%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.4¢Risks 69.40u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.60u · EPS −30.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	19.6%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	4.7%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	34.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	36.8%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	6.7%	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	55.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	1.3%	61.3%	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	55.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	28.6%	48.6%	2.9%	45.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	38.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	23.7%	50.7%	56.6%	39.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	62.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	18.4%	64.2%	21.1%	31.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	62.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	55.6%	47.6%	41.3%	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	49.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	40.1%	30.8%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	11.5%	45.7%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	69.3%	68.6%	54.4%	50.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	62.4%	71.3%	—	51.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	71.8%	75.6%	65.3%	55.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	71.6%	73.2%	—	59.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	80.3%	79.0%	72.1%	62.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	86.5%	88.1%	—	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	81.0%	85.5%	74.9%	68.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	82.4%	91.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	83.1%	92.7%	71.8%	72.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	76.9%	91.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	65.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	62.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗