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KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
83%
ICON
80%
WN2
75%
AIFS
74%
EPS
56%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 69.4¢Risks 69.40u
VS
EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.60u · EPS −30.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:0010-17 15:2510-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:0069.2%55.7%67.6%83.1%79.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:0069.2%55.7%67.6%83.1%79.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:0069.2%55.7%67.6%83.1%79.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:0069.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%79.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:0069.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%79.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:0069.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%79.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:0072.2%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:0073.6%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:0073.6%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:0073.6%55.7%74.9%83.1%80.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES83%66.3°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON80%65.7°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%64.0°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single74%64.4°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble56%62.2°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%62.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend41%61.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗