KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

63%

63%

54%

51%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 66.1¢Risks 66.15u

WN2NO 33.9¢Risks 33.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +33.85u · WN2 −33.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	12.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	2.4%	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	24.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	3.4%	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	42.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	48.0%	—	23.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	41.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	18.0%	34.9%	1.2%	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	14.0%	36.4%	42.0%	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	47.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	10.0%	49.2%	11.8%	19.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	46.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	39.7%	32.3%	26.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	33.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	25.1%	17.8%	31.5%	17.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	5.1%	29.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	52.6%	51.7%	37.1%	33.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	44.6%	54.5%	—	34.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	54.6%	59.1%	47.2%	37.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	53.8%	55.7%	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	64.3%	62.4%	53.9%	43.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	72.6%	75.1%	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	64.1%	70.6%	56.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	65.5%	79.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	65.9%	81.7%	51.1%	52.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	56.7%	78.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	92%	65.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	67.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	64.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	64.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	63.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗