KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

63%

63%

54%

51%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 66.1¢Risks 66.15u

WN2NO 33.9¢Risks 33.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +33.85u · WN2 −33.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00	57.8%	39.5%	55.3%	71.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	57.8%	39.5%	54.3%	71.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	57.8%	39.5%	54.3%	71.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	57.8%	39.5%	54.3%	71.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	57.8%	39.5%	54.3%	71.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	62.8%	39.5%	54.3%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	62.8%	39.5%	54.3%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	62.8%	39.5%	54.3%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	62.8%	39.5%	54.3%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	62.8%	39.5%	54.3%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	62.8%	47.0%	61.7%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	62.8%	47.0%	61.7%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	62.8%	47.0%	61.7%	77.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	63.7%	47.1%	61.7%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	63.7%	47.1%	61.7%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:39+00:00	63.7%	44.2%	61.7%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	63.7%	44.2%	61.7%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	63.7%	44.2%	68.3%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	63.7%	44.2%	68.3%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	63.7%	44.2%	68.3%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	63.7%	44.2%	68.3%	77.0%	70.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	62.0%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	61.7%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	61.1%	44.2%	68.3%	84.4%	70.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	62.6%	44.2%	68.3%	81.0%	63.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	62.6%	44.2%	68.3%	81.0%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	62.6%	44.2%	68.3%	81.0%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	62.6%	44.2%	68.3%	81.0%	63.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	62.6%	44.2%	68.3%	81.0%	63.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	62.6%	53.7%	51.3%	81.0%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	62.6%	53.7%	51.3%	81.0%	63.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	92%	65.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	67.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	64.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	64.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	63.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗