KSEA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

70%

63%

35%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.1¢Risks 64.10u

HRESNO 35.9¢Risks 35.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.90u · HRES −35.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	67.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	82.8%	—	60.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	72.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	67.6%	—	68.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	64.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	13.9%	41.9%	—	58.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	33.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	46.5%	25.2%	30.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	33.0%	55.8%	69.6%	52.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	43.2%	57.6%	62.7%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	56.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	21.2%	71.2%	39.7%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	71.7%	—	57.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	79.9%	85.7%	67.0%	51.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	19.6%	76.0%	—	55.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	70.9%	76.6%	77.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	69.0%	87.5%	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	71.0%	77.7%	51.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	61.2%	73.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	35.7%	84.7%	64.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	26.5%	94.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	63.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	63.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	58.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	58.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	57.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	54.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗