KSEA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

70%

63%

35%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.1¢Risks 64.10u

HRESNO 35.9¢Risks 35.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.90u · HRES −35.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	63.7%	82.1%	66.0%	64.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	63.7%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	63.7%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	63.7%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	63.7%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	63.1%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	63.1%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	63.1%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	63.1%	82.1%	60.9%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	63.1%	85.1%	65.0%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	63.1%	85.1%	65.0%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	63.1%	85.1%	65.0%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	63.1%	85.1%	65.0%	64.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	63.0%	85.1%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	63.0%	85.6%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	63.0%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	63.0%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	63.0%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	63.0%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	63.0%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	65.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	65.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	65.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	65.0%	50.6%	65.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	65.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	60.9%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	61.0%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	65.8%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	65.8%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	65.1%	85.7%	65.8%	61.3%	65.3%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	77.2%	85.7%	65.8%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	77.2%	85.7%	65.8%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	77.2%	85.7%	65.8%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	77.2%	85.7%	65.8%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	77.2%	85.7%	65.8%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	77.2%	92.5%	79.6%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	77.2%	92.5%	79.6%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	77.2%	92.5%	79.6%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	66.4%	92.5%	79.6%	78.2%	41.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	66.4%	92.5%	79.6%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	79.6%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	79.6%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	79.6%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	78.1%	41.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	72.0%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	69.5%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	69.5%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	66.4%	93.6%	69.5%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	63.4%	93.6%	69.5%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	63.4%	93.6%	69.5%	34.6%	86.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	63.4%	93.6%	69.5%	34.6%	86.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	63.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	63.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	58.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	58.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	57.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	54.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗