KSEA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

79%

68%

56%

24%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.10u · ICON −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	56.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	73.6%	—	48.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	61.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	55.2%	—	55.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	7.7%	29.4%	—	44.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	21.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	33.0%	15.3%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	29.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	21.0%	41.3%	55.8%	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	28.9%	42.4%	47.7%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	40.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	11.5%	56.4%	25.5%	54.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	56.5%	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	66.2%	74.2%	50.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	9.9%	61.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	54.4%	61.3%	62.9%	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	51.8%	75.8%	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	53.7%	61.8%	33.9%	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	42.5%	55.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	19.7%	70.4%	45.1%	45.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	13.0%	85.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	59.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	55.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗