KSEA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

79%

68%

56%

24%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.10u · ICON −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	63.9%	67.2%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	63.9%	71.4%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	63.9%	71.4%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	65.9%	71.4%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	65.7%	71.4%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	65.7%	72.2%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	65.7%	72.2%	49.2%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	65.7%	72.2%	53.1%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	65.7%	72.2%	53.1%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	65.7%	72.2%	53.1%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	65.7%	72.2%	53.1%	49.4%	35.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	53.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	53.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	53.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	53.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	44.4%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	50.0%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	50.0%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	50.0%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	50.0%	72.2%	50.8%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00	47.6%	86.4%	51.0%	22.9%	77.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	47.6%	86.4%	53.9%	22.9%	77.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	47.6%	86.4%	53.9%	22.9%	77.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	47.6%	86.4%	53.9%	22.9%	77.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	47.6%	86.4%	53.9%	22.9%	77.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	53.5%	86.4%	53.9%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	53.5%	86.4%	53.9%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	53.5%	86.4%	53.9%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	53.5%	86.4%	53.9%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	53.5%	86.4%	53.9%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	53.5%	95.3%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	53.5%	95.3%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	53.5%	95.3%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	57.8%	95.3%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	57.8%	95.3%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:39+00:00	57.8%	94.0%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	57.8%	94.0%	57.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	57.8%	94.0%	56.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	57.8%	94.0%	56.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	57.8%	94.0%	56.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	57.8%	94.0%	56.4%	54.0%	67.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	56.4%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	56.4%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	56.4%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	56.4%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	48.3%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	54.3%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	62.6%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	62.6%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	51.7%	94.0%	62.6%	44.4%	66.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	55.6%	94.0%	62.6%	79.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	55.6%	94.0%	62.6%	79.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	55.6%	94.0%	62.6%	79.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	55.6%	94.0%	62.6%	79.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	55.6%	94.0%	62.6%	79.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	55.6%	95.7%	68.3%	79.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	55.6%	95.7%	68.3%	79.0%	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	59.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	55.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗