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KSEA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
67%
HRES
38%
WN2
16%
AIFS
15%
ICON
2%
Consensus
6%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 34.7¢Risks 34.70u
VS
ICONNO 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.30u · ICON −65.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-13 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.6%———2.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0014.3%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0017.5%———30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0011.2%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0034.0%———30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0028.3%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0030.1%———23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0025.2%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0012.6%———22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0020.4%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0022.4%———27.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0038.0%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0017.5%———20.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0029.7%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0018.9%———27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0027.4%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0018.5%———28.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0018.1%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:007.4%———20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.3%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:009.5%———19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:008.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0025.4%———14.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0018.1%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0021.9%———14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0021.1%—26.8%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0011.0%—43.7%—20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0016.4%—30.4%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.1%—24.6%—25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—21.2%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0011.8%1.2%8.2%—16.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—5.0%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:004.0%9.3%2.9%4.0%15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:005.3%—7.5%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:004.8%4.2%12.8%22.1%11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:004.2%—12.3%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.5%6.5%12.5%15.5%9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:004.1%—11.3%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:007.8%1.4%20.1%4.9%18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.6%—19.5%—10.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.4%26.5%34.5%15.2%7.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:002.5%0.9%21.4%—8.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:003.1%16.1%20.8%22.1%7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.8%14.0%33.4%—6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.9%14.4%19.6%5.8%4.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.1%8.4%14.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.1%1.9%24.7%9.0%9.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.9%42.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble67%65.2°F3.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%62.1°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%60.1°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single15%59.1°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast12%59.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON2%55.7°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%57.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 64°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗