KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

19%

14%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.4¢Risks 8.20u

WN2NO 83.6¢Risks 41.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.80u · WN2 −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	2.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	8.1%	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	15.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.9%	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	1.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	11.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	10.5%	5.4%	2.1%	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	10.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	8.2%	4.4%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	8.1%	20.0%	14.2%	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	18.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	6.9%	13.6%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	9.5%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	12.9%	4.7%	15.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.5%	13.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	4.3%	15.6%	9.7%	3.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	3.9%	14.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	24%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	59.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	58.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 64°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗