KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.7¢Risks 1.66u

EPSNO 93.3¢Risks 23.34u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.34u · EPS −23.34u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	59.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	35.7%	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	19.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	68.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	65.8%	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	59.4%	54.7%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	19.4%	30.5%	47.2%	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	18.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	21.0%	31.0%	21.0%	24.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	7.4%	—	57.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	17.9%	9.7%	20.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	12.6%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	8.3%	20.1%	6.9%	23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	50.0%	7.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	17.8%	5.2%	9.0%	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	17.2%	5.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	11%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	58.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	59.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 51°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-LE51
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 51°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗