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KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
11%
HRES
10%
AIFS
4%
WN2
3%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 6.7¢Risks 1.66u
VS
EPSNO 93.3¢Risks 23.34u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.34u · EPS −23.34u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 10:3510-19 12:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:004.3%4.4%4.2%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:004.3%4.4%4.2%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:004.3%4.4%4.2%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:004.3%4.4%4.2%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:004.3%4.4%4.2%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:004.3%2.0%3.0%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:004.3%2.0%3.0%9.7%11.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:004.3%2.0%3.0%9.7%11.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON11%57.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES10%58.0°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single4%59.4°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%58.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%56.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%60.4°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 51°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-LE51
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 51°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗