KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

77%

58%

48%

33%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.85u · ICON −43.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	20.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	59.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	81.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	85.6%	—	38.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	79.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	6.6%	67.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	53.5%	76.5%	8.5%	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	82.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	35.0%	75.7%	10.9%	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	70.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	16.9%	12.5%	21.1%	28.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	71.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	15.4%	62.5%	21.8%	29.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	69.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	59.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	58.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	56.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	56.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	55.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	51.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗