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KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
79%
EPS
77%
AIFS
58%
HRES
48%
ICON
33%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 56.1¢Risks 56.15u
VS
ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.85u · ICON −43.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 33.3% · 2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00ICON: 33.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00ICON: 33.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00ICON: 33.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 33.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:0057.6%76.6%79.0%47.5%33.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:0057.6%76.6%79.0%47.5%33.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:0057.6%76.6%79.0%47.5%33.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0057.6%76.6%79.0%47.5%33.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0057.6%76.6%79.0%47.5%33.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 279%59.9°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble77%58.4°F4.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%56.6°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend55%56.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES48%55.1°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON33%51.2°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗